Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı FK — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026, 08:00, Misli Premier League.

Match Preview

Qarabağ FK enters this fixture with a creative edge led by the consistent playmaking of Abdellah Zoubir and the recent upturn in form from Olexiy Kashchuk. Conversely, Şamaxı FK will look to disrupt the rhythm through their primary midfield engine Oruc Memmedov, though they face a significant defensive challenge against a potent host attack.

Final3rd's predicted score: Qarabağ FK 3-0 Şamaxı FK.

Match Result Probabilities

• Qarabağ FK win: 60%
• Draw: 22%
• Şamaxı FK win: 18%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 3.67
• Over 2.5 goals: 63%
• Under 2.5 goals: 37%
• Both teams to score: 48%
• BTTS no: 52%

Key Factors

• Kashchuk Attacking Form — Olexiy Kashchuk is trending upward with an L10 xG/90 of 0.32 compared to his season average of 0.30, providing a reliable goal threat for Qarabağ FK.
• Zoubir Playmaking Consistency — Abdellah Zoubir remains the primary creative outlet for the hosts, maintaining a steady 3.7 key passes per 90 minutes that should exploit gaps in the Şamaxı defensive structure.
• Şamaxı Midfield Discipline — Midfielders Ricardo Apolinário and Oruc Memmedov show high card probabilities of 26% and 23% respectively, suggesting potential vulnerability in the center of the park under high-intensity pressure.

Player Insights

• Olexiy Kashchuk (Qarabağ FK) — Attacking threat trending upward Kashchuk has elevated his output recently with his L10 xG/90 climbing to 0.32 from a season average of 0.30, showing improved efficiency in the final third.
• Marko Janković (Qarabağ FK) — Efficiency dip in midfield Janković has seen his xG/90 drop to 0.00 in his last 10 appearances compared to his 0.18 season baseline, indicating a slump in his goal-scoring contributions.
• Jaly Mouaddib (Qarabağ FK) — Struggling to find targets Mouaddib is currently experiencing a form dip, with his L10 xG/90 falling to 0.00 from a season average of 0.24, highlighting a need to regain composure.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.