San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:45, Liga Profesional Argentina.

Match Preview

This matchup centers on San Lorenzo's attacking line facing a defensive-focused Deportivo Riestra side, with the former looking to improve their efficiency in the final third. Rodrigo Auzmendi remains the focal point for the hosts despite a recent dip in output, while Deportivo Riestra relies on Milton Celiz to transition play and threaten from distance.

Final3rd's predicted score: San Lorenzo 2-0 Deportivo Riestra.

Match Result Probabilities

• San Lorenzo win: 40%
• Draw: 32%
• Deportivo Riestra win: 28%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 1.66
• Over 2.5 goals: 28%
• Under 2.5 goals: 72%
• Both teams to score: 37%
• BTTS no: 63%

Key Factors

• Auzmendi's finishing slump — Rodrigo Auzmendi enters the match underperforming his season xG by 0.89, highlighting a persistent finishing struggle for the San Lorenzo striker.
• Cuello's creative spark — Alexis Cuello has shown positive form improvement, with his L10 xG/90 trending upward to 0.19 compared to his 0.09 season average.
• Riestra shot volume — Deportivo Riestra playmaker Milton Celiz is a significant threat from distance, maintaining consistent shot production that fits the profile for high-frequency attempts.

Player Insights

• Rodrigo Auzmendi (San Lorenzo) — Finishing struggles persist Auzmendi has seen his xG/90 drop to 0.29 in his last 10 games compared to his 0.53 season baseline, showing a clear downward trend in conversion quality.
• Alexis Cuello (San Lorenzo) — Growing efficiency in final third Cuello is finding better positions recently, with his xG/90 doubling from a 0.09 season average to 0.19 over the last 10 matches.
• Milton Celiz (Deportivo Riestra) — Consistent threat from distance Celiz maintains a highly stable production profile, matching his season-long xG/90 of 0.10 perfectly within his last 10 appearances.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.