Borussia Dortmund vs FC Bayern München — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:30 at Signal Iduna Park, Franz Beckenbauer Supercup.

Match Preview

This high-profile matchup centers on Harry Kane's elite finishing ability against a Borussia Dortmund side struggling with consistency in the final third. With Bayern's midfield creators poised to exploit the gaps, the game promises significant attacking intent from both sides.

Final3rd's predicted score: Borussia Dortmund 1-2 FC Bayern München.

Match Result Probabilities

• Borussia Dortmund win: 42%
• Draw: 14%
• FC Bayern München win: 44%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 3.31
• Over 2.5 goals: 64%
• Under 2.5 goals: 36%
• Both teams to score: 67%
• BTTS no: 33%

Key Factors

• Harry Kane elite finishing — Harry Kane enters this match in blistering form with a 128% increase in L10 xG/90, maintaining a 73% probability to score.
• Dortmund attacking inconsistency — Serhou Guirassy is currently experiencing a cold streak, with his L10 xG/90 dropping to 0.00 compared to his season average of 0.47.
• Bayern creative engine — Joshua Kimmich and Konrad Laimer continue to dominate the midfield, combining for 4.6 key passes per game to feed the forward line.

Player Insights

• Harry Kane (FC Bayern München) — In-form clinical finisher Kane's L10 xG/90 of 0.46 shows a massive 128% uptick over his season average of 0.20, indicating he is finding space more effectively.
• Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund) — Struggling to convert chances Guirassy's production has stalled with an L10 xG/90 of 0.00, representing a total collapse from his 0.47 season baseline.
• Joshua Kimmich (FC Bayern München) — Consistent creative anchor Kimmich remains a model of consistency, maintaining an identical 0.62 xA/90 compared to his season average of 0.61.
• Jonathan Tah (FC Bayern München) — Reliable but foul-prone Tah shows stable defensive output with consistent foul intensity and a steady card rate of 0.21 per game.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.