Bohemians Praha 1905 vs FK Jablonec — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Sunday 16 August 2026, 15:00 at Dolicek Stadium, Czech First League.

Match Preview

This match features a clash between Bohemians Praha 1905 and FK Jablonec, where Jablonec's offensive threat is anchored by Sebastian Nebyla's efficiency against Bohemians' defensive setup. Both sides rely on key creative hubs like Alexis Alegue and Václav Drchal to manufacture scoring opportunities in what figures to be a tightly contested tactical battle.

Final3rd's predicted score: Bohemians Praha 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.

Match Result Probabilities

• Bohemians Praha 1905 win: 42%
• Draw: 28%
• FK Jablonec win: 30%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 2.35
• Over 2.5 goals: 47%
• Under 2.5 goals: 53%
• Both teams to score: 52%
• BTTS no: 48%

Key Factors

• Sebastian Nebyla Efficiency — Nebyla has significantly outperformed his season xG by 6.00, demonstrating elite finishing ability that could punish Bohemians if given space.
• Drchal Finishing Slump — Václav Drchal enters the match in cold form, with his L10 xG/90 trending 34% below his seasonal average, suggesting potential struggles in converting high-value chances.
• Alegue Creative Stability — Alexis Alegue maintains consistent creative output with 1.8 key passes per 90, providing a reliable service line for Jablonec's attack.

Player Insights

• Václav Drchal (Bohemians Praha 1905) — Finishing struggle impacts goal potential Drchal has seen his xG/90 drop from 0.24 on the season to 0.16 in his last 10 appearances, indicating a cooling trend for the Bohemians forward.
• Sebastian Nebyla (FK Jablonec) — High efficiency finishing threat Nebyla is a clinical finisher who has dramatically outperformed his expected goals, making him the primary threat to find the back of the net for Jablonec.
• Alexis Alegue (FK Jablonec) — Consistent creative hub Alegue remains the most reliable creator for Jablonec, maintaining identical key pass metrics across both his season and L10 splits.
• Aleš Čermák (Bohemians Praha 1905) — Overperforming seasonal metrics Čermák is currently overperforming his xG, showing an upward trajectory in his attacking production over the last 10 games.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.