Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Wednesday 14 October 2026, 18:45, Championship.

Match Preview

Queens Park Rangers enter this fixture with strong home offensive metrics, led by the creative hub of Ilias Chair, who maintains high engagement in the final third. Conversely, Derby County faces defensive pressure as they struggle to contain attacks, though the midfield pairing of Sammie Szmodics and Joe Ward remains capable of generating transition opportunities for the visitors.

Final3rd's predicted score: Queens Park Rangers 2-1 Derby County.

Match Result Probabilities

• Queens Park Rangers win: 53%
• Draw: 25%
• Derby County win: 22%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 2.79
• Over 2.5 goals: 52%
• Under 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 57%
• BTTS no: 43%

Key Factors

• QPR attacking efficiency — Queens Park Rangers maintain a solid average xG of 1.69, consistently pressuring opponents through the creative playmaking of Ilias Chair.
• Derby defensive vulnerability — Derby County has struggled significantly with a negative goal difference, conceding 13 goals in 7 matches while facing high pressure against their backline.
• Midfield card risk — Key engine room players including Glen Kamara and Lewis Travis both present a 20-21% probability of receiving a booking due to high foul frequencies.

Player Insights

• Ilias Chair (Queens Park Rangers) — Creative hub in peak form Chair is overperforming his xG by 0.28, showing an upward gradient in production that makes him the most influential attacking threat for QPR.
• Rumarn Burrell (Queens Park Rangers) — Primary target man duties Burrell remains the focal point of the QPR attack with a 32% scoring probability, despite a slight dip in L10 xG efficiency.
• Sammie Szmodics (Derby County) — Volume shooter struggling for efficiency Szmodics generates significant shooting volume with 2.4 xShots, but lacks clinical conversion, placing heavy reliance on his 42% probability to hit 3+ shots.
• Glen Kamara (Queens Park Rangers) — High-intensity midfield anchor Kamara remains a central defensive pillar with high intensity levels, but his 0.38 YC/G rate poses a consistent threat of suspension/cards.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.