PEC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:30, Eredivisie.

Match Preview

PEC Zwolle look to leverage the high conversion rates of Koen Kostons, who commands a significant share of the team's expected goals. Meanwhile, SC Cambuur’s midfield pivot of Rafik El Arguioui and Ilyes Hamache presents a dual threat capable of exploiting defensive gaps through frequent shot generation and creative distribution.

Final3rd's predicted score: PEC Zwolle 2-1 SC Cambuur.

Match Result Probabilities

• PEC Zwolle win: 43%
• Draw: 26%
• SC Cambuur win: 31%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 3.23
• Over 2.5 goals: 63%
• Under 2.5 goals: 37%
• Both teams to score: 66%
• BTTS no: 34%

Key Factors

• Kostons attacking dominance — Koen Kostons controls 69% of Zwolle's xG share and is finding the net consistently, outperforming his xG by 0.71 goals.
• Midfield shot volume — Rafik El Arguioui and Ilyes Hamache are highly active, combining for significant shot production that threatens Zwolle’s defensive stability.
• Card-prone midfield battle — Key midfielders like Nicky Souren and Ryan Thomas are at elevated risk for bookings, potentially forcing early tactical substitutions in a high-intensity matchup.

Player Insights

• Koen Kostons (PEC Zwolle) — High-efficiency target man Kostons is currently overperforming his season xG, proving to be the most clinical player on the pitch with a strong conversion trend.
• Rafik El Arguioui (SC Cambuur) — Volume shooting threat While his xG/90 has slightly dipped recently, he continues to lead his team in shot volume and remains a primary creative force.
• Ilyes Hamache (SC Cambuur) — Rising creative presence Hamache is seeing an upward trend in his attacking output, now accounting for 23% of his team's xG share.
• Dylan Mbayo (PEC Zwolle) — Consistent creative hub Mbayo remains a reliable secondary creator, maintaining stable key pass numbers despite not yet finding the back of the net.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.