NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 at Kranjčevićeva, HNL.

Match Preview

This match features a clash between creative hubs and primary goal threats looking to break out of recent inconsistencies. With high expected goal output from both sides, the game will likely hinge on whether Lokomotiva’s playmakers can supply a misfiring attack against a Hajduk defense showing increased offensive involvement.

Final3rd's predicted score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 HNK Hajduk Split.

Match Result Probabilities

• NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win: 41%
• Draw: 23%
• HNK Hajduk Split win: 35%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 3.10
• Over 2.5 goals: 65%
• Under 2.5 goals: 35%
• Both teams to score: 60%
• BTTS no: 40%

Key Factors

• Marić efficiency struggles — Mirko Marić leads the attack but is underperforming his xG by 0.40, indicating he needs higher volume to find the net. Despite this, he remains the focal point with a 12% xG share.
• Rebić creative spark — Ante Rebić has shifted his focus toward creation, boasting an L10 xA/90 of 0.33 which exceeds his season average, making him a vital link in the Hajduk attack.
• High expected goal environment — The statistical model predicts a total of 3.1 expected goals, fueled by defensive vulnerabilities on both sides and a 60% probability for both teams to score.

Player Insights

• Mirko Marić (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) — Underperforming but heavily involved Marić is underperforming his xG by 0.40, yet he maintains a high floor with 1.7 xShots/90, showing he finds the right spots despite the lack of clinical finishing.
• Ante Rebić (HNK Hajduk Split) — Increasing playmaking output Rebić has shown an uptick in his creative responsibilities recently, with his L10 xA/90 (0.33) trending above his season baseline, proving he is more than just a finisher.
• Dušan Vuković (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) — Severe drop in offensive activity Vuković has seen his L10 xG/90 plummet to 0.00 compared to his season average, suggesting a major dip in form or tactical role change ahead of this match.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.