North Macedonia vs Slovenia — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Monday 16 November 2026, 19:45, UEFA Nations League, League C, Gr. 3.

Match Preview

This matchup centers on Slovenia's attacking efficiency led by their creative midfield against a North Macedonian side relying on high-volume shooting from their midfielders. The dynamic will be defined by whether the Slovenian forward line can convert high-probability opportunities against a North Macedonian defensive unit that frequently concedes space outside the box.

Final3rd's predicted score: North Macedonia 2-1 Slovenia.

Match Result Probabilities

• North Macedonia win: 44%
• Draw: 32%
• Slovenia win: 25%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 2.88
• Over 2.5 goals: 52%
• Under 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 52%
• BTTS no: 48%

Key Factors

• Slovenian Attacking Efficiency — Slovenia's attack maintains a higher expected goal value of 1.705, suggesting they are better positioned to exploit defensive lapses.
• Enis Bardhi Shot Volume — Despite a cold spell in xG, Enis Bardhi remains a primary offensive engine for North Macedonia with high sustained shot volume.
• High Shooting Frequency — Both teams feature starters like Žan Vipotnik and Enis Bardhi who consistently generate high shot totals, favoring over-market betting angles.

Player Insights

• Žan Vipotnik (Slovenia) — Primary shooting threat for Slovenia Vipotnik leads the side with a 90% projection for shots, showcasing his role as the focal point of the attack.
• Enis Bardhi (North Macedonia) — High-volume shooter seeking efficiency While his xG/90 has dropped to 0.00 recently, his shot volume remains steady at 1.9 per 90, keeping him as the main threat for North Macedonia.
• Andraž Šporar (Slovenia) — Creative hub despite scoring drought Šporar has shifted his utility towards creative playmaking, maintaining a solid 23% probability of an assist.
• Ezgjan Alioski (North Macedonia) — Key creator from the flank Alioski has increased his output to 2.2 key passes per 90, demonstrating his critical role in breaking down defensive lines.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.