Stade Rennais vs Auxerre — Predictions, Stats & Match Analysis

Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:15, Ligue 1.

Match Preview

Stade Rennais enters this fixture with a high-powered attack led by the clinical form of Esteban Lepaul, who is currently outperforming his season xG metrics significantly. They face an Auxerre side that relies heavily on Cameron Archer to generate offensive danger, though the visitors struggle to maintain consistency in their build-up play. The matchup promises open dynamics as Rennes pushes for dominance against an Auxerre defense that has conceded consistently throughout the season.

Final3rd's predicted score: Stade Rennais 2-1 Auxerre.

Match Result Probabilities

• Stade Rennais win: 63%
• Draw: 20%
• Auxerre win: 17%

Goals & BTTS

• Expected total goals: 3.05
• Over 2.5 goals: 63%
• Under 2.5 goals: 37%
• Both teams to score: 57%
• BTTS no: 43%

Key Factors

• Lepaul's clinical finishing — Esteban Lepaul has been exceptional, with his L10 xG/90 of 0.71 comfortably exceeding his season average of 0.54, making him a major threat.
• Auxerre defensive frailty — Auxerre has conceded 36 goals this season, providing Rennes' creative midfielders like Adrien Thomasson ample opportunity to exploit gaps.
• Tamari attacking surge — Mousa Tamari has seen a 203% increase in his xG/90 over the last ten matches, signaling a significant uptick in his goal-scoring involvement.

Player Insights

• Esteban Lepaul (Stade Rennais) — Clinical finisher in elite form Lepaul has elevated his L10 xG/90 to 0.71, a notable rise from his 0.54 season baseline, indicating he is currently in his most dangerous stretch.
• Mousa Tamari (Stade Rennais) — Rapidly increasing scoring threat Tamari has transformed his output recently, with an xG/90 of 0.50 over his last ten games compared to just 0.16 for the season.
• Danny Namaso (Auxerre) — Efficiency dip for forward Namaso has seen his xG/90 drop to 0.00 in the last ten games, significantly trailing his 0.27 season average as he struggles to find space.
• Adrien Thomasson (Stade Rennais) — Stable creative force in midfield Thomasson maintains steady creative output, with an L10 xA/90 of 0.26 mirroring his consistent season contribution of 0.21.

All predictions are generated by Final3rd's statistical model and AI analysis layer using team and player data, expected goals, recent form and head-to-head history. Visit Final3rd for live scores, player props and detailed match analysis.