Shots on Target (SoT)
A shot is "on target" if it would result in a goal without intervention from a goalkeeper or defender — meaning the ball was heading inside the goal frame. Shots blocked by outfield defenders before reaching the keeper do *not* count as on target.
Why SoT is the cleanest player-prop stat
Shots on target is one of the cleanest underlying stats for player props. A striker averaging 2+ SoT per 90 is a strong candidate for the "Over 1.5 Shots on Target" market. Unlike goals, SoT correlates strongly from match to match — it is a much more stable predictor than finishing rate.
Final3rd tracks per-match and last-10-game SoT splits across every league we cover and grades player props accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
Does a shot off the post count as on target?
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No. A shot hitting the woodwork without going in is recorded as hitting the woodwork, not as a shot on target. It would not have resulted in a goal without intervention.
Do blocked shots count as on target?
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No. Shots blocked by an outfield defender are recorded separately from shots on target — only shots that would beat the goalkeeper qualify.