Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value (EV) is the average profit or loss you would make on a bet if it were repeated infinitely. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is statistically profitable in the long run; negative EV (-EV) means it is a long-term loser.
The EV formula
EV = (probability of winning × profit if you win) − (probability of losing × stake).
Example: a £10 bet at decimal odds of 2.50 with a 45% win probability has EV = (0.45 × £15) − (0.55 × £10) = £6.75 − £5.50 = +£1.25 per bet.
How Final3rd shows EV
Final3rd shows the EV of every value bet so you can size stakes proportionally to the edge — typically using a fractional Kelly criterion. Bets with high EV deserve larger stakes than marginal +EV bets.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good EV percentage in football betting?
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Sustained edges of +3–5% EV are excellent. +10% EV bets exist but are rare and usually short-priced before bookmakers correct. Most retail-friendly value sits in the +2–6% range.