Correct Score
Correct Score is a bet on the exact full-time scoreline of a match. Common lines include 1-0, 2-1, 2-2, and so on. Prices are long because the market has many possible outcomes — even the most likely correct score in a typical match is usually priced at 6.00 or higher.
How correct score odds are calculated
Correct score predictions come directly from a Poisson distribution applied to each team's expected goals (lambda). The model outputs a probability for every possible scoreline up to roughly 6-6, and bookmakers price each line according to that probability plus their margin.
Final3rd publishes the top 5 most-likely scorelines for every match, with their model probability and value vs market odds.
Why correct score is high variance
Even the most-likely scoreline in a match (often 1-1 or 2-1) typically has just an 11–14% probability. Long-term profitability requires patience and disciplined staking — most professional bettors pair correct score bets with safer markets like Over/Under or Asian Handicap.
Frequently asked questions
What is the most common correct score in football?
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Across the top European leagues, 1-1 and 2-1 are the most common scorelines, typically occurring in 11–13% of matches each.